Trail time predictions, finish probabilities and cutoffs

Understand the basis, missing information and limits of TRAIL STATUS predictions when considering a race.

Time prediction from an index

When suitable race results and indices are available, they inform the time estimate. Limited references can require transfer from other races or an estimate. Read the displayed basis and missing information. This is not an official ITRA prediction.

Personal finish probability versus field finish rate

A historical finish rate describes the starters and finishers of that edition. It is not your personal probability. Prediction ranges are not guarantees and cannot account for every change in weather, terrain, fueling or condition.

Reading cutoff margins

Review recorded intermediate cutoffs as well as the finish prediction. Missing cutoffs have not been checked. Verify start times, stops and uncertain profiles against the official rules before planning.

Backyard lap estimates

Lap estimates differ from ordinary race finish probabilities. Multiplying a target lap count into distance and duration does not guarantee you can complete it. Review actual laps alongside your recorded reason for stopping.

Sources, verification and updates

Each race page links to official sources and shows when its information was checked. In the app, compare your saved pre-race prediction with your result. Personal records are not published here; this guide does not publish aggregate accuracy statistics.

Find a race and try a prediction · ITRA

Compiled from each race's official information. Details can change, so always check the race's official website for the latest. Spotted a mistake? Please tell us through the contact form.
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